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When the United States left Vietnam in 1963, former National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger contrived to leave with honour. He calculated that the puppet government in Saigon could survive for a sufficient period of time for its fall not to negatively impact American public opinion and its international standing. A war-weary public could stomach an ignoble withdrawal but not defeat. Two years later, the distinction was lost on the world as the American-backed government fell and the United States was forced to evacuate from its embassy. The scenes of helicopters over Saigon were seared into the American consciousness. At the height of its power, the superpower paid the price for its hubristic ambitions. Parallels were hard to avoid when President Biden declared there would be no repeat of Saigon in Afghanistan. However, events took their course, and Biden faced a humiliating withdrawal that cost the lives of 13 US soldiers and countless Afghans.

A deep crisis now scars his presidency. The Afghan army melted away. The ill-fated Ashraf Ghani decided he would not be another Diem, the South Vietnamese leader murdered by his generals as the Viet Cong advanced. Biden had hoped that the treasures expended on Afghanistan, by some accounts nearly two trillion dollars, would buy him some time. Ghani was meant to fight the good fight as US troops withdrew, yet his cowardice got the better of him. Without US air cover, he rightly calculated, the house of cards he and his predecessors had erected in Kabul – a plutocratic liberal mirage – would inevitably crumble. Maybe Biden had hoped for the government to last at least until the commemoration of 9/11 so he could tell the war-weary American public that he had done the honourable thing. But scenes of chaos and death at Kabul airport underscored the strategic failure of the administration as they battled to keep up with events. Biden would later narrate that the botched operation was part of his military’s calculation, yet his words rang hollow. If there was ever a metaphor for a crumbling superpower, it was these final days.

This week we bring together two commentators and analysts to make sense of the regional and international dimensions to the crisis. Sami Hamdi is the Editor-in-Chief of the International Interest. An experienced geopolitical analyst, he is a frequent guest on Aljazeera, Sky News, TRT World, and other outlets. Ibrahim Moiz is a writer and researcher on South Asia with considerable insight into Afghanistan and Pakistan. He writes for TRT World and other outlets. We consider the events of the past twenty years and what next for America and the Muslim world.